Agreed. Small colt, but a ton of heart. But bigger, more physical colts like Eskendereya, Rule, Lookin At Lucky, and Dublin are just going to be too much for this colt to handle. IMO.
When Jackson Bend was dominating at Calder in the Florida Stallion Series in late summer 2009, he really, at that time, looked like the colt to have to beat at Churchill Downs, the first Saturday in May. But just as Jackson Bend starting "staking his claim" as one of the best 3yr.old competitors, other 3yr.olds starting emerging. Then just as quickly as his impact was felt, the wire starting becoming difficult to find first. Winslow Homer blew by him in the Holy Bull Stakes, and Eskendereya destroyed him in the stretch run of the Fountain of Youth Stakes. I'm not saying that Jackson Bend can't or won't be a factor in the 2010 Kentucky Derby. But if he's going to be a factor, he'd better start finding his "A" game soon. Because from here on out, until that first Saturday in May, the day's of dominating races with Mr. Green and Bim Bam are pretty much over and done with. Not trying to run him down, because he does have an excellent record, but from where we are right now, there's at least half-a-dozen other prospects for the Derby that could handle Jackson Bend. IMO.
Certainly, Rule is the most accomplished dirt runner going into the 2010 Florida Derby. But Radiohead could prove to be a difficult competitor for Rule in the race. Radiohead has raced basically all of his 2yr.old campaign on Turf in Great Britain. In the UK, he's 6-2-2-1. With win's in the EBF Novice Stakes, and the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes. He also ran a strong 2nd to Awzaan, an undefeated colt starting his 3yr.old campaign, in the Group 1 Shadwell Middle Park Stakes. Rule has won 4 straight on the dirt, and has never been worse than 3rd in seven lifetime starts, all on conventional dirt tracks. Both Rule and Radiohead like to run up front, although Radiohead will set a little further off of the pace than Rule generally does. This should be an interesting match-up between two high caliber 3yr.old colts.
I really like Rule as one of my potential Kentucky Derby horses to use this year. Winner of 4 in a row on conventional dirt, and never off of the board in 7 lifetime starts, all on dirt. Rule is a big, physical horse that likes to run up-front and wear down the competition. His biggest challenge in this race will likely come from the colt from Great Britain, Radiohead. I've watched replays of Radiohead's races in the UK on attheraces.com and RacingUK. He's a quick colt with a very nice turn of foot. I haven't as of yet seen him race over dirt, but he did look quite impressive in the UK on Turf.
With Cavalryman out of the Dubai World Cup, and going back to the Turf for the Sheema Classic, I'd have to say, just knowing his ability in "big money" Stakes races around the world that Vision D'Etat will likely be the World Cup favorite. Although, I've never seen him race over the Tapeta but only on Turf in his career. But there's a number of other horses that will be very game competitors in the race, IMO. Gio Ponti and Twice Over, although normally Turf horses, have proven themselves capable of performing on the synthetic track in the 09' Breeders Cup Classic. Also, Mastery has raced and performed well on synthetics at Kempton in the 09' Kentucky Derby Challenge Stakes. Gloria De Campeao has proven to just like Dubai period. No matter which surface he races over, Tapeta or Turf. But the one horse in the field that sticks out to me, that because of all these great Turf horses in the race, that a person may get a price, and he loves the synthetic track is Gitano Hernando. Winning in both the UK and the U.S. over the synthetic tracks. He wouldn't be a bad ATB bet given he'll likely go off about 8 or 10-1. JMO.
I've never seen Vision D'Etat race over any surface except turf in his racing career, so I really don't know what to expect out of him over the Tapeta surface at Meydan. I will say this, that other than a poor finish in the 09' Prix d' le Arc', he's been one of the most "clutch" racing for big money Group or Grade 1 horses in the world in 2009. With victories in the Prix Ganay, The Prince of Wales Stakes, and the Pacific Hong Kong Cup, beating a star-studded field that yielded Presvis, Collection, Ashalanda, and Eagle Mountain but to name a few. He also has one 2nd place finish to Spanish Moon in the 09' Prix Foy, and one 3rd place finish to Trincot and The Bogberry in the 09' Prix harcourt. If Vision D'Etat adapts and run's well over the Tapeta surface, Gio Ponti and Twice over, already proven stayers on synthetics, may be his only real challenges. But if he struggles on the surface, as did Prix Neil and Arc 3rd place finisher Cavalryman, than the race may become a wide open one. JMO.
Saturday, a big question for me got answered when Lookin at Lucky won the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn. The question of whether or not he would respond to a conventional dirt track surface. That he did. I personally think he may be the most talented of all of the potential Derby field, but I do think there are a handful that could "upset the balance." Rule, for me is one of those horses. Having won 4 straight races on dirt in both the slop and over a dry track, and never off of the board in 7 lifetime starts on dirt. He's just a big, physically fit looking 3yr.old to me, and I'll probably use him in some way on my Derby tickets. Until the Gotham Stakes, I had only seen replays of Awesome Act racing on Turf in Great Britain. Not overly impressive on the grass, he certainly made me rethink my position watching him perform on dirt at Aqueduct. I thought his Gotham performance is one of the strongest Derby preps I've seen thus far. Another horse, who ran very poorly on the synthetics in the B.C. Juvenile, but has really responded on dirt that catches my eye is D'Funnybone. As unimpressive as he was on synthetics, he's been equally impressive in the Belmont Futurity and the Saratoga Special. He may be one of those horses that one could get at a price on come the first Saturday in May. One more I'll mention, who most would consider a real long shot, is Interactif. Still, as of yet, to race on conventional dirt, to me as talented as LAL is on dirt, Interactif looked on Turf. So the talent is there. Whether or not he responds to dirt is the issue. But if he does, he could be a dangerous colt at a price also, IMO. He looked very strong on synthetics, and I personally feel that had he not been swung so wide off of the final turn, he had a shot to win the San Felipe Stakes. With an improved ride, and a response to dirt, this would make for a very talented colt. One that would likely be a real long shot given he started out on the grass. IMO.
Seeing what I saw out of Rachel Alexandra in the New Orleans Ladies on Saturday, I'd describe it as a 4yr.old mare, who even after a 6 month rest period away from racing, looked like a spent mare on the track. Assuming that Rachel was racing at 85% of peak level on Saturday, shouldn't that still have been good enough to beat a far inferior group of fillies? Zenyatta was not at peak level either in the Santa Margarita Handicap on Saturday, but she was still good enough to beat a far inferior group of fillies. Maybe that grueling 2009 campaign took more out of Rachel than we know. Maybe she will never return to anywhere near the glory of her 3yr.old season in 2009. My gut says, after watching yesterday's results, that a future Zenyatt-Rachel Alexandra match-up is very doubtful. So maybe the race that the racing public may start crying out to see would be a potential 2010 race that involved both Zenyatta and Quality Road. I do believe after her win on Saturday, that Zenyatta in short order will be back to peak level. Watching Quality Road win the Donn Handicap a month or so ago, it would be hard to believe he's not already at peak level. I'm certain a Zenyatta-Quality Road match-up would make for far more interesting racing than a Zenyata-Rachel Alexandra match-up would at this point. JMO.
Being that he started and has raced most of his career on Turf, I'd be anxious to see how well Interactif handled a conventional dirt surface. I thought he ran a very game 2nd to Sidney's Candy on the synthetics, and could have potentially won the race if he hadn't had to swing so wide. I've always felt Interactif was a 2yr.old, now a 3yr.old with a lot of potential. If he can handle the dirt, and get the distance, I wouldn't completely rule him out of being a potential Kentucky Derby contender. TJMO.
Even though Zenyatta carried a higher weight of 129 lbs. in the 2009 Vanity Handicap, in the 2010 Santa Magarita, carrying 127 lbs., she's actually giving away more weight to the rest of the field as a whole than she did in the Vanity. But Zenyatta has always seemed to be up to the task, and always seems to respond to every challenge put before her. It does bother me, however, that in Handicap races that Zenyatta is treated as if she were a colt, and not a mare because of her size and physical presence. Some colts don't get assigned the weight that Zenyatta carries in Handicaps. I wonder, at times, looking at the weight assignments for the entire field of the Santa Magarita, if they're not trying to intentionally get Zenyatta beat by saddling her with such burdens weight wise. JMO.
